What applications to develop?

The applications managers have to develop depends on the current positioning and the projection and type of network proposed. ( FaberNovel Consulting research report - ‘Social Network websites: best practices from leading services’)

S-Curve market adoption model

S-curve (Sigmoid curve) is one of the most commonly used model for planning market adoption of a new product or service by business analysts. Here is a simple implementation with just three parameters:

1. Start of fast growth/ Hyper growth : By this year, the penetration will be 10% of the saturation value, and it will start to grow rapidly. 10% was an arbitrary choice to simplify the model, and by doing some math you could change the formula to any value. It is a reasonable choice in most cases.
2. Takeover time : How long it will take for the product to “catch on”? - The operational assumption in the formula is that this number of years after the start of fast growth, the product would have reached 90% of the saturation value and will start to slow down. Again, 90% is an arbitrary value I chose.
3. Saturation : What is the maximum expected penetration after the product becomes mainstream? i.e. what is the value that the top of the s-curve will reach?

The s-curve model focuses in the early phases of the product lifecycle, until maturity is reached. Penetration decay is NOT covered by this model.

Each year’s penetration = S/(1+81^((hypergrowth+takeover/2-year)/takeover))

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